#1 2008-01-20 19:42:28
This little troll is someone Shrub listens to. He is also Giuliani’s foreign policy adviser, which means a position in a Giuliani administration.
Offline
#2 2008-01-20 20:20:11
Sometimes you just gotta give war a chance.
Offline
#3 2008-01-20 20:24:56
I love it when people use past CIA mistakes to claim that we should ignore intelligence and just bomb people because that's what our gut says to do.
Offline
#4 2008-01-20 22:53:15
I'm just sure Iran only wants nuclear technology for generating electricity. It's not like they have some other abundant resource they can use to generate power. Wait...
Offline
#5 2008-01-20 23:47:05
Zookeeper wrote:
I'm just sure Iran only wants nuclear technology for generating electricity. It's not like they have some other abundant resource they can use to generate power. Wait...
Actually their story is they want nuke plants so they can sell more of their oil and natural gas rather than using it for power. Considering the source, I find it unlikely. However it is a somewhat good reason to build nuclear power plants in an oil rich country. If they were smart that is exactly the use the would put their oil sales to, as well as other infrastructure projects and development projects. As it stands now, one hundred years from today, they will be back in huts in the desert.
Offline
#6 2008-01-21 00:39:18
badperson wrote:
Zookeeper wrote:
I'm just sure Iran only wants nuclear technology for generating electricity. It's not like they have some other abundant resource they can use to generate power. Wait...
Actually their story is they want nuke plants so they can sell more of their oil and natural gas rather than using it for power. Considering the source, I find it unlikely. However it is a somewhat good reason to build nuclear power plants in an oil rich country. If they were smart that is exactly the use the would put their oil sales to, as well as other infrastructure projects and development projects. As it stands now, one hundred years from today, they will be back in huts in the desert.
Someone correct me, but I thought I heard that they didn't refine their oil, and it's relatively difficult to get people to move there (they have to offer them benefits like one month off, one month on, etc. to retain people), so if they wanted to run natural gas plants they'd probably end up having to drill the oil, ship it somewhere to be refined and/or sell it to someone who refines it, and then buy it back. In the long run light water reactors could end up working much better for them.
On a side note unrelated to anything, I just re-watched the beginning of RoboCop (love the 80's style cynical view of the future, especially the commercials), and I just noticed for the first time that he's running DOS as his operating system. Even stranger, he runs command.com before loading the BIOS...
Offline
#7 2008-01-21 10:53:24
tojo2000 wrote:
badperson wrote:
Zookeeper wrote:
I'm just sure Iran only wants nuclear technology for generating electricity. It's not like they have some other abundant resource they can use to generate power. Wait...
Actually their story is they want nuke plants so they can sell more of their oil and natural gas rather than using it for power. Considering the source, I find it unlikely. However it is a somewhat good reason to build nuclear power plants in an oil rich country. If they were smart that is exactly the use the would put their oil sales to, as well as other infrastructure projects and development projects. As it stands now, one hundred years from today, they will be back in huts in the desert.
Someone correct me, but I thought I heard that they didn't refine their oil, and it's relatively difficult to get people to move there (they have to offer them benefits like one month off, one month on, etc. to retain people), so if they wanted to run natural gas plants they'd probably end up having to drill the oil, ship it somewhere to be refined and/or sell it to someone who refines it, and then buy it back. In the long run light water reactors could end up working much better for them.
So, you're saying that it's easier and cheaper for them to develop nuclear technology, hire and retain the personel needed to run nuke plants, acquire fissionable material and run the nuke plants than it would be for them to refine their own? Are refinery workers that much harder to get than nuclear plant techs? I'm not saying it can't be true but I have to wonder. As for the "one hundred years from today" observation from badperson, how many more years would it really add to their oil business and how much would that counter-balance the cost of their nuclear program for them to sell the oil they would be refining and using themselves?
Offline
#8 2008-01-21 11:19:11
Here, Zookeeper, don't let your newly attained elevation to the leisure class disuade you from listening to an opposing view...
Last edited by choad (2008-01-21 11:20:09)
Offline
#9 2008-01-21 17:50:08
choad wrote:
Here, Zookeeper, don't let your newly attained elevation to the leisure class disuade you from listening to an opposing view...
I missed the part where he talked about Iran and why developing nuclear powerplants made more sense economically for them than generating power from all that oil and natural gas they are sitting on top of. Was that in there somewhere? I have ADD and given that it was nearly 9 minutes of a black and white picture of some old guy with a rambling voice-over I may have missed the reference whilst being distracted by something shiney...
Offline
#10 2008-01-21 18:02:37
There is no way in heck that Nuclear is more cost effective, short or long term. Or more labor effective than gas turbine power in Iran. Iran has the 2nd largest natural gas reserves in the world.
It is true that Iran lacks the ability to refine its oil, but natural gas is so much cheaper and easier to process, transport and use. With an access to a source, it is vastily cheaper in short and long term, more reliable, easier and faster to build out than any other electrical generating system.
Nuclear power previously promised reduced operating and fuel costs compared to other systems. But nothing is as cheap as Natural Gas powered turbines. Nuclear's capital outlay costs are so high and construction time so long that servicng the financing consumes most of the savings in other areas.
Some of the benefit of really cheap fuel has largely gone away with liberalization and speculation in the uranium marlets. The price has tripled in the last 8 years. Unless you can mine and process your own enriched uranium fuel that is. All current power plant reactor systems must use enriched uranium for fuel except Canada's heavey water reactors which can use partially enriched or reproccesed depleted uranium.
In addition whatever remaining operational savings might remain in a nuclear power plant are consumed by the exceptional high maitenence costs when something needs fixing before its reaches the end of its design life. Along with the costs of decommisiong and waste disposal.
In the US, in current dollars these factors have cost typicaly :
$2 to 3+ billion capital outlay for constructing 1200 megawatt plants.
$.5 to 1 billion unexpected repair and mandated updating
$.4 to 1 billion decommisioning
$ .3 to .5 billion to trust for waste disposal
Even the promise of newer Gen III+ designs already seeking type approval which are simpler, safer, cheaper, modular, low maintenance, adaptable to demand. and take less then 4 years to build will not be availiable to meet Iran's plan to add 53000 MWe of electricity by 2010. That would be a lot of expensive 1100- 1500 MWe nuclear plants to build. Especially for an Iran that is mired in a financial crisis in spite of all its oil wealth.
Iran's increasing electricity needs will be done primarrily by gas and coal. The purpose behind Nuke power in Iran is primarilly for reasons that do not have to do with meeting its growing energy demand.
Last edited by Johnny Rotten (2008-01-21 19:09:11)
Offline
#11 2008-01-21 21:00:30
Zookeeper wrote:
tojo2000 wrote:
badperson wrote:
Actually their story is they want nuke plants so they can sell more of their oil and natural gas rather than using it for power. Considering the source, I find it unlikely. However it is a somewhat good reason to build nuclear power plants in an oil rich country. If they were smart that is exactly the use the would put their oil sales to, as well as other infrastructure projects and development projects. As it stands now, one hundred years from today, they will be back in huts in the desert.Someone correct me, but I thought I heard that they didn't refine their oil, and it's relatively difficult to get people to move there (they have to offer them benefits like one month off, one month on, etc. to retain people), so if they wanted to run natural gas plants they'd probably end up having to drill the oil, ship it somewhere to be refined and/or sell it to someone who refines it, and then buy it back. In the long run light water reactors could end up working much better for them.
So, you're saying that it's easier and cheaper for them to develop nuclear technology, hire and retain the personel needed to run nuke plants, acquire fissionable material and run the nuke plants than it would be for them to refine their own? Are refinery workers that much harder to get than nuclear plant techs? I'm not saying it can't be true but I have to wonder. As for the "one hundred years from today" observation from badperson, how many more years would it really add to their oil business and how much would that counter-balance the cost of their nuclear program for them to sell the oil they would be refining and using themselves?
I haven't done the math on the cost/benefit of building nuclear to sell more petroleum. Nuclear has been around a while and many of the everyday tech jobs are probably on par with that of a refinery tech. The engineering is probably higher level stuff. It might or might not make immediate financial sense to do it. However at some point petroleum will be a dead issue, and if you haven't built an infrastructure to encourage and sustain new industries, there is no future. Oil sales, unless wisely invested oday, will not sustain any country in one hundred years. Iran's program is almost certainly a weapons program, and I am sure the lion's share of their oil revenues go into weapons programs or other programs that will not prepare them for a post oil world. But they will have plenty of weapons, and the people will be just as reasonable as any population going throung a major economic depression that also happen to have a large segment of suicidal religous fanatics, usually is.
Offline
